USD/CAD: Scope to move lower based on BoC and oil – MUFG

Matías Salord FXStreet

USD/CAD is on its way to the lowest weekly close since February below 1.3400. Analysts at MUFG Bank see that the Canadian Dollar has some scope in the short term to outperform.

Key quotes:

“We have been somewhat cautious over the prospects for CAD and indeed over the year as a whole, we suspect CAD will be a laggard versus most of G10 but taking a short term horizon we do see some scope for CAD to outperform.”

“We don’t expect any additional rate hikes but the resilience of the economy and the BoC’s modestly more hawkish communication this week has helped keep the USCA 2yr swap at levels supportive for further USD/CAD declines.”

“Our rates/crude oil short-term regression model indicates scope for USD/CAD to fall a couple of big figures from here. The IMM analysis below also reveals that CAD shorts are most stretched based on our z-score analysis and that could prompt some CAD buying as well.”

Author

Matías Salord

FXStreet

Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.

AUD/USD eyes 0.7150 barrier nine-day EMA

AUD/USD inches higher after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7130 during the Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair is moving sideways within the rectangle pattern, suggesting a consolidation as neither the bulls nor the bears have enough momentum to take control of the market.

USD/JPY trades below 160.00 intervention threshold; bullish bias intact

The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, the Israel-Lebanon truce prompts some profit-taking around the US Dollar and exerts downward pressure on the currency pair.

Gold defends 200-day SMA at $4,425, but for how long?

Gold is attempting a tepid recovery toward $4,500 early Thursday, as renewed optimism in the Mideast geopolitical front calms market nerves. This cautious optimism across Asian markets weighs on Oil prices, and diminishes the US Dollar’s safe-haven appeal, helping Gold stage a decent comeback from the weekly low of $4,424.

Hyperliquid: ETF demand, capital rotation fuel HYPE rally as Bitcoin melts

Hyperliquid price sustains an upward trend near its all-time high of $75.76 on Thursday after posting 80% gains in May, while Bitcoin (BTC) retraces below $65,000, triggering a market-wide panic.

Kevin Warsh takes the Fed helm: What it means for the US Dollar

The Federal Reserve moves away from the highly predictable "forward guidance" model of the Jerome Powell era to a new “Kevin Warsh environment”, characterized by less communication, more policy surprises, and an increased focus on the Fed's complex balance sheet.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.