USD/CAD remains on the defensive below 1.4300, Canadian CPI data in focus
- USD/CAD softens to around 1.4290 in Monday’s late American session.
- US Retail Sales rose softer than expected in February, weighing on the US Dollar.
- Crude Oil prices edge higher due to geopolitical risks, supporting the commodity-linked CAD.
The USD/CAD pair remains on the defensive near 1.4290 during the late American session on Monday. The US dollar (USD) weakens as fears of economic slowdown from US President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies keep investors cautious on the Greenback. Canada’s February Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report will be in the spotlight on Tuesday.
US Retail Sales rose less than expected in February, adding to concerns about a slowdown in consumer spending. Data released by the US Census Bureau on Monday showed that Retail Sales in the United States climbed 0.2% MoM in February versus -1.2% (revised from -0.9%) prior. This figure came in weaker than the market expectation for an increase of 0.7%. On a yearly basis, Retail Sales came in at 3.1%, compared to 3.9% (revised from 4.2%) in January.
The discouraging US economic data, along with Trump’s tariff threats, has sparked high levels of uncertainty amongst investors. This, in turn, drags the USD lower against the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Investors will keep an eye on the US Building Permits, Housing Starts and Industrial Production data, which are due later on Tuesday. If the reports show a stronger outcome, this could help limit the USD’s losses in the near term.
A rise in Crude Oil prices amid the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provides some support to the commodity-linked Loonie. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States (US), and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
