USD/CAD remains depressed below mid-1.4200s amid weaker USD, rebounding Oil prices

USD/CAD attracts fresh sellers on Tuesday and is pressured by a combination of factors.
Recovering Oil prices underpin the Loonie and weigh on the major amid a weaker USD.
The divergent Fed-BoC policy expectations further contribute to the intraday decline.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/CAD pair drifts lower following an Asian session uptick to the 1.4275-1.4280 region, or a one-and-half-week top and for now, seems to have snapped a two-day winning streak. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.4245-1.4240 region, down nearly 0.15% for the day amid the emergence of fresh US Dollar (USD) selling.

The recent weaker US macro data, including the flash PMIs released last Friday showing that business activity in the private sector fell to a 17-month low in February, lifted bets for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. This, in turn, fails to assist the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, to capitalize on the overnight bounce from its lowest level since December 10. Apart from this, a further recovery in Crude Oil prices, from a fresh year-to-date touched on Monday, underpins the commodity-linked Loonie and exerts some downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair.

Moreover, a slight acceleration in Canadian consumer inflation forced investors to scale back their bets that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut the policy rate again at its next monetary policy meeting on March 12. This turns out to be another factor that lends additional support to the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and contributes to the offered tone surrounding the USD/CAD pair. That said, worries about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs might hold back the CAD bulls from placing aggressive bets. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for further losses for the currency pair.

Trump said on Monday that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports are "on time and on schedule" for March 4 and that reciprocal tariffs on other countries will also go ahead as planned. Traders now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index and the Richmond Manufacturing Index. This, along with speeches from influential FOMC members, will drive the USD and provide some impetus to the USD/CAD pair. Apart from this, Oil price dynamics might further contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities later during the US session.

US Dollar PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.08%	-0.10%	-0.09%	-0.09%	-0.09%	-0.05%	-0.00%
EUR	0.08%		-0.02%	0.02%	-0.01%	-0.01%	0.03%	0.08%
GBP	0.10%	0.02%		0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	0.05%	0.09%
JPY	0.09%	-0.02%	0.00%		0.00%	0.00%	0.03%	0.08%
CAD	0.09%	0.00%	-0.01%	-0.00%		0.00%	0.04%	0.08%
AUD	0.09%	0.00%	-0.01%	-0.01%	-0.01%		0.04%	0.08%
NZD	0.05%	-0.03%	-0.05%	-0.03%	-0.04%	-0.04%		0.04%
CHF	0.00%	-0.08%	-0.09%	-0.08%	-0.08%	-0.08%	-0.04%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

AUD/USD stuck as the RBA talks tough into a slowdown

The Australian Dollar is going nowhere in a hurry, and the contradiction at its core explains why. The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps dangling the prospect of another hike, yet the economy it governs just expanded 0.3% in the first quarter, a clear step down from the prior pace. A central bank threatening to tighten into a visible slowdown is not a recipe for conviction in either direction, and the tape shows it.

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen coiled at the line, leaning on everyone but Japan

The Yen is doing very little, and that stasis is the whole story. USD/JPY sits glued near 160.00 not because Japan has found new strength, but because two outside forces are fighting to a draw over it: a US rate complex that keeps the dollar bid, and a Ministry of Finance that refuses to let the line break.

Gold declines below $4,500 on stalled US-Iran ceasefire talks, US NFP data looms

Gold price edges lower to near $4,470 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal remains volatile amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal and the US May employment report later on Friday.

Bitcoin falls below $64K as demand turns negative, short-term holders' selling intensifies

Bitcoin has fallen below $64,000 on Thursday amid weakening market demand and mounting selling pressure from short-term holders. The leading cryptocurrency slipped toward the $63,000 level amid a broader risk-off environment, with several key metrics signaling one of the most challenging periods of the current market cycle.

Nonfarm payrolls: Testing the limits of Fed policy patience

The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for May will provide the final update on the US labor market before Kevin Warsh attends his first policy meeting as the new Fed Chair later this month.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.