USD/CAD Price Analysis: Sticks to modest intraday gains above 1.3700, lacks bullish conviction

USD/CAD attracts fresh buyers on Wednesday and draws support from a combination of factors.
Softer Canadian CPI undermines the Loonie and acts as a tailwind amid a modest USD strength.
The mixed technical setup warrants caution before positioning for a firm near-term direction.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/CAD pair regains positive traction on Wednesday and holds its neck above the 1.3700 round-figure mark through the first half of the European session.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is undermined by softer domestic consumer inflation figures released on Tuesday, which now seem to have dashed hopes for any further rate hikes by the Bank of Canada (BoC). The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, is seen building on the previous day's hawkish FOMC minutes-inspired recovery move from its lowest level since August 31 and acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, subdued action around Crude Oil prices does little to provide any meaningful impetus to the commodity-linked Loonie.

From a technical perspective, spot prices, so far, have been showing resilience below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the September-November rally and finding some support near a two-month-old ascending trend line. The latter is near the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), around the 1.3670-1.3665 region, which should now act as a key pivotal point and determine the near-term trajectory for the USD/CAD pair.

With oscillators on the daily chart starting to gain some negative traction, a convincing break below the 50-day SMA will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for some meaningful downside. The USD/CAD pair might then weaken further below the 50% Fibo. level, around the 1.3640-1.3635 region, and accelerate the slide towards the 1.3600 mark en route to the 1.3580-1.3575 zone, or 61.8% Fibo. level.

On the flip side, any subsequent move-up is likely to confront some resistance near the weekly swing high, around the 1.3750 area ahead of the 1.3775 region, or the 23.6% Fibo. level. Some follow-through buying will negate any near-term negative bias and allow the USD/CAD pair to reclaim the 1.3800 mark. The momentum could get extended further towards the 1.3835-1.3840 supply zone and the YTD peak, near the 1.3900 level.

USD/CAD daily chart

Technical levels to watch

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price	1.3717
Today Daily Change	0.0019
Today Daily Change %	0.14
Today daily open	1.3698

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.377
Daily SMA50	1.3667
Daily SMA100	1.3534
Daily SMA200	1.3513

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.3732
Previous Daily Low	1.3681
Previous Weekly High	1.3844
Previous Weekly Low	1.3655
Previous Monthly High	1.3892
Previous Monthly Low	1.3562
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.37
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.3712
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.3676
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.3653
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.3626
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.3726
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.3754
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.3777

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.