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USD/CAD losing the grip near 1.3120, eyes on US ISM

The Canadian dollar is posting meagre gains vs. its neighbor on Monday, sending USD/CAD to the 1.3120/15 band for the time being.

USD/CAD attention to oil, ISM

The pair manages to keep the trade above the 1.3100 handle so far, against the backdrop of a mild bias favouring the greenback and crude oil prices trading slightly in the red territory.

The barrel of West Texas Intermediate remains in the upper end of the recent range, meandering around the $48.00 mark and following last week’s data, which showed inventories decreasing by more than 1.8 million barrels and oil rigs count up by seven to 425.

Ahead in the session, RBC’s Manufacturing PMI is only due in Canada, while ISM Manufacturing and Markit’s PMI are expected in the US docket.

Regarding positioning, speculative money has taken CAD back to the net short area for the first time since March 29, while Open Interest are at their lowest levels since that time.

USD/CAD significant levels

As of writing the pair is losing 0.05% at 1.3120 facing the next support at 1.3059 (55-day sma) followed by 1.2996 (low Sep.22) and then 1.2818 (low Sep.7). On the other hand, a break above 1.3276 (high Sep.27) would open the door to 1.3311 (38.2% Fibo of the 2016 drop) and finally 1.3575 (50% Fibo of the 2016 drop).

1 Week
Avg Forecast 1.3024
100.0%86.0%29.0%03040506070809010000.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.910
  • 29% Bullish
  • 57% Bearish
  • 14% Sideways
Bias Bearish
1 Month
Avg Forecast 1.3171
100.0%66.0%33.0%03040506070809010000.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.910
  • 33% Bullish
  • 33% Bearish
  • 33% Sideways
Bias Bullish
1 Quarter
Avg Forecast 1.3250
100.0%90.0%60.0%0606570758085909510000.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.910
  • 60% Bullish
  • 30% Bearish
  • 10% Sideways
Bias Bullish

Author

Pablo Piovano

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

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