USD/CAD keeps the red near daily lows, around mid-1.3000s post-Canadian retail sales

  • USD/CAD met with some fresh supply on Friday and turned lower for the third straight session.
  • Positive oil prices undermined the loonie, which got an additional boost from upbeat macro data.
  • A subdued USD price action further contributed to the intraday selling bias surrounding the pair.

The USD/CAD pair remained depressed near session lows, around mid-1.3000s and had a rather muted reaction to Canadian monthly retail sales figures.

The pair failed to capitalize on its early uptick, instead met with some fresh supply just ahead of the 1.3100 mark and turned lower for the third consecutive session on Friday. The downtick also marked the fifth day of a negative move in the previous six and was sponsored by an uptick in crude oil prices, which tend to underpin demand for the commodity-linked currency – the loonie.

The Canadian dollar was further supported by Friday's mostly upbeat domestic data, which showed that headline retail sales recorded a growth of 1.1% in September as against 0.2% expected and 0.4% previous. Adding to this, sales excluding autos also surpassed consensus estimates and increased 1% during the reported month, albeit did little to provide any impetus to the USD/CAD pair.

On the other hand, the US dollar extended its sideways consolidative price action amid conflicting signals about the US COVID-19 relief package. Reports indicated that US Senate Republican and Democrat leaders had agreed to resume negotiations on coronavirus stimulus measures. The positive development, to a larger extent, was offset by the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's decision to end some of the pandemic relief for struggling businesses.

Apart from this, concerns about the economic fallout from the imposition of new COVID-19 restrictions in several US states have been fueling speculations for additional monetary easing by the Fed. This, along with a weaker tone surrounding the US Treasury bond yields, kept the USD bulls on the defensive and further contributed to the offered tone surrounding the USD/CAD pair.

From a technical perspective, the pair, so far, has managed to hold its neck above weekly swing lows. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for some strong follow-through selling before traders start positioning for any further near-term depreciating move.

Technical levels to watch


Today last price 1.3057
Today Daily Change -0.0004
Today Daily Change % -0.03
Today daily open 1.3061
Daily SMA20 1.3141
Daily SMA50 1.3198
Daily SMA100 1.3261
Daily SMA200 1.3535
Previous Daily High 1.3123
Previous Daily Low 1.3058
Previous Weekly High 1.3173
Previous Weekly Low 1.2928
Previous Monthly High 1.339
Previous Monthly Low 1.3081
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.3083
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.3098
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3038
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.3015
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2973
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.3103
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3146
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.3169



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