USD/CAD holds firm ahead of CPI – BBH

USD/CAD is firmer near the top-end of a multi-day 1.4000-1.4080 range. Canada’s September CPI print is up next (1:30pm London, 8:30am New York), BBH FX analysts report.

BOC cut bets building

"Headline CPI is expected to rise to 2.2% y/y vs. 1.9% in August due to base effect while core CPI (average of trim and median CPI) is seen unchanged at 3% y/y. Softer inflation will raise Bank of Canada (BOC) rate cut bets and trigger a USD/CAD overshoot to 1.4160."

"Canada’s subdued growth outlook leaves room for the BOC to lower the policy rate to the lower end of its estimated neutral range of 2.25% to 3.25%. Canada’s swaps curve implies 80% odds of a 25bps cut to 2.25% at the next October 29 meeting."

"The Bank of Canada’s Q3 Business Outlook Survey future sales growth index fell to -2 in Q3 (lowest since Q2 2023) vs. +6 Q2. Perversely, weak demand is constraining selling price expectations and squeezing margins, which further weighs on the business outlook. Meanwhile, firms’ investment intentions remain muted in Q3, with the balance of opinion still well below its long-term average, and most businesses do not plan to hire new employees."