|

USD/CAD drops to fresh weekly low, further below 1.2700 mark amid modest USD weakness

  • USD/CAD came under intense selling pressure on Wednesday and dived to a fresh weekly low.
  • The risk-on impulse weighed on the safe-haven USD and exerted downward pressure on the pair.
  • Bulls seemed rather unimpressed by softer crude oil prices, which tend to undermine the loonie.

The USD/CAD pair continued losing ground through the early North American session and dropped to a fresh weekly low, around the 1.2680 region in the last hour.

Having faced rejection near the 1.2780-1.2785 supply zone, the USD/CAD pair witnessed aggressive long-unwinding trade on Wednesday amid renewed US dollar selling bias. The fact that new economic sanctions on Russia were not as bad as feared helped ease the nervousness about the situation in Ukraine and boosted investors' confidence. This was evident from a generally positive tone around the equity markets, which, in turn, weighed on the safe-haven greenback.

That said, a fresh leg up in the US Treasury bond yields should act as a tailwind for the greenback. Apart from this, modest downtick in crude oil prices could undermine the commodity-linked loonie and help limit any further losses for the USD/CAD pair, at least for now. The fundamental backdrop supports prospects for the emergence of dip-buying around the USD/CAD pair and warrants some caution for bearish traders amid absent relevant market moving economic releases.

From a technical perspective, the good two-way price moves witnessed over the past four weeks or so point to indecision among traders over the next leg of a directional move for the USD/CAD pair. Moreover, repeated failures near the said trading range hurdle make it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before positioning for any meaningful upside. Nevertheless, any subsequent decline is more likely to find decent support near the 1.2655-1.2650 region.

Technical levels to watch

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price1.2687
Today Daily Change-0.0079
Today Daily Change %-0.62
Today daily open1.2766
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.2718
Daily SMA501.2706
Daily SMA1001.2629
Daily SMA2001.2549
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.2783
Previous Daily Low1.2719
Previous Weekly High1.2784
Previous Weekly Low1.2664
Previous Monthly High1.2814
Previous Monthly Low1.2451
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.2759
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.2744
Daily Pivot Point S11.2729
Daily Pivot Point S21.2692
Daily Pivot Point S31.2664
Daily Pivot Point R11.2793
Daily Pivot Point R21.2821
Daily Pivot Point R31.2858

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

More from Haresh Menghani
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD bulls regain control above 0.6950 amid USD retreat

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the previous day's bounce from the weekly low, aiming for 0.7000 in Asia on Friday. The overnight pullback in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar below an 18-month high, which in turn offers some support to the pair. Meanwhile, hawkish RBA expectations also keep the major underpinned.

USD/JPY holds gains near 158.00 after Japan's weak Household Spending data

USD/JPY clings to gains around 158.00 after data showed on Friday that Japan's Household Spending fell for the ninth straight month, undermining the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains depressed as the overnight fall in US bond yields counters a hawkish Fed and geopolitical uncertainties, could cap any downside in the pair.

Gold remains range-bound below $4,200

Gold has given up some ground after an initial bullish attempt to reach weekly highs, returning to below the $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The US Dollar’s strong upside momentum, combined with rising US Treasury yields across the curve, seems to keep further gains in the yellow metal under scrutiny.

Week ahead: US CPI, France’s budget crisis and Q3 earnings to set the market tone
The US dollar held relatively strong this week, despite the disappointing US jobs report on October 2, which further decreased the probability of a back-to-back rate hike by the Fed at the upcoming gathering on October 28.
CFTC Report: Euro and Aussie shorts expand amid diverging signals

The week in one sentence: Euro and Australian Dollar shorts deepened in the week to October 6, while Yen longs rebuilt. In addition, Coffee buying continued, and Gold exposure remained elevated despite another price decline. Speculators turned more negative on the Euro, increasing the net exposure to around 99.3K contracts.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?
Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?