USD/CAD could slide below 1.20 this month – Mizuho

Commodity prices rose again in the latter half of May, so the Canadian dollar was bought and the USD/CAD pair moved in a range between 1.20 and 1.21. In June, the USD/CAD pair is expected to move in a range from 1.19-1.25.

CAD/JPY will probably trade in a range between 87.5-92

“Investors have more-or-less priced in a recovery in crude oil demand as the covid crisis is brought under control, so crude oil prices will probably move heavily on the topside. If Iran starts exporting crude oil again, crude oil prices may well fall. These prices will probably swing higher and lower on headlines related to COVID-19 or crude oil inventories and supply structures, with WTI moving between $55 to $65/barrel.” 

“From here on, the foreign exchange markets will also be impacted substantially by expectations about the timing of tapering and rate hikes in Canada, the US and other major countries. Attention will focus on FRB comments about tapering in June. However, Canada has already begun a phased tapering of its QE program.”

“With vaccines also being rolled out, the Canadian economy looks set to recover steadily from here on. As such, the USD/CAD pair could dip below 1.20 in June, with the pair expected to move in a range between 1.19-1.25.” 

“The CAD/JPY yen pair will probably trade in a range between 87.5-92. Canadian long-term interest rates have declined slightly from peak, but they remain higher than Japanese long-term rates, so the CAD/JPY pair looks set to remain bullish.”