USD/CAD could reach 1.40 before falling back to 1.32 next year – CIBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The Canadian dollar is set to see modest weakening in the fourth quarter as the Federal reserve outguns the Bank of Canada (BoC). But the loonie is expected to gain ground in 2023 as the USD falls out of favour, economists at CIBC Capital Markets report.

CAD to weaken, before following the pack stronger in 2023

“The Fed’s hawkish announcement in late September and general risk aversion has sent the USD on a broadly stronger trajectory, and the loonie has depreciated as a result. There's likely more of the same to come, given a gap opening up in where policy rates will peak, and soft global growth favouring the USD and capping any upside for commodities.”

“A run to 1.40 is quite possible, and a rebound at year end should still see CAD in 1.38 territory.”

“In 2023, we see scope for a broad softening in the USD as the Fed pauses hiking below current market expectations, which will see CAD end the year stronger, with USD/CAD at 1.32.”

“The loonie could still end 2024 stronger, with USD/CAD at 1.28, helped by expectations for a pickup in global growth and commodity prices in 2025 that would benefit Canada's export sector.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD clings to 1.3500 amid marginal losses

GBP/USD alternates gains with losses around the 1.3500 neighbourhood on Tuesday. Indeed, Cable struggles to further extend its incipient recovery in a context of continuous instability in the Middle East and modest gains in the Greenback.

EUR/USD alternates gains with losses near 1.1540

EUR/USD navigates a tight range near 1.1550 in the latter part of Tuesday’s NA session. The US Dollar’s vacillating price action accompanies the pair while market participants gear up for the crucial US inflation data due on Wednesday.

Gold trades with positive bias below $4,400; Fed hike bets cap gains ahead of US CPI

Gold attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday, stalling the previous day's retracement slide from the $4,435 region, or the highest level since June 5. The commodity, however, remains below the $4,400 mark as traders await key US inflation figures for fresh cues about the US Federal Reserve's future policy path before placing fresh directional bets on the non-yielding yellow metal.

Bitcoin risks liquidation-driven spikes amid deepening market apathy

Bitcoin has remained trapped between $60,000 and $80,000 for six consecutive months, reflecting a market increasingly defined by apathy and weak trading activity. However, such thin volumes combined with elevated open interest leave room for sudden spikes in liquidation, according to a Tuesday report by K33.

US Dollar: CPI keeps USD in tight ranges

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note the US Dollar softened as Fed hike expectations moderated and the US yield curve steepened. They argue that without a strong upside surprise in United States Consumer Price Index, the USD should stay rangebound, supporting carry trades.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.