USD/BRL: Real supported for now, renewed weakness expected in the longer term – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

For the time being, USD/BRL should trade around current levels. Longer term, however, economists at Commerzbank see BRL depreciation risks returning.

Attractive real interest rate supports the Real

“The USD/BRL exchange rate has already reached our target of 4.95 and should remain around this level for the time being, supported by the attractive real interest rate.”

“In the longer term, we are concerned that the government could increase its influence on monetary policy which could lead to a renewed weakening of the Real.”

Source: Commerzbank Research

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000/two-month low; bearish potential intact

The AUD/USD pair oscillates in a narrow range during the Asian session, and moves little following the release of mixed inflation figures from China. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.7025 region, nearly unchanged for the day, and remain within striking distance of a nearly two-month low set on Tuesday. Renewed hostilities between the US and Iran temper hopes for a deal to end the over three-month-old war.

Japanese Yen languishes despite wholesale inflation accelerates in May

USD/JPY flatlines after experiencing volatility, trading around 160.40 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair continues to hold its ground, reflecting a struggling Japanese Yen that has failed to find support despite a massive acceleration in wholesale inflation. Driven by surging energy costs linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict, Japan’s Producer Price Index jumped 6.3% year-over-year in May. This hot printing comfortably outpaced April’s upwardly revised 5.3% figure and surpassed market consensus of 5.5%, marking the fastest pace of wholesale price growth in three years.

$4,200: Gold retains bearish bias near March low ahead of US CPI

Gold recovers slightly after touching a fresh low since March 23, though it retains a bearish bias near the $4,200 mark through the early European session. Renewed hostilities between the US and Iran fuel inflationary concerns and bolster bets for more hawkish central banks, which is seen as a key factor driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal. Furthermore, the decline could be attributed to technical selling following the recent breakdown below the very important 200-day SMA.

Cardano's downtrend deepens despite on-chain bottoming signals

Cardano edges lower to $0.1600 signaling a potential extension of the 30% loss from last week. The altcoin remains under intense selling pressure, weighing on its retail support. Still, a spike in dormant supply re-entering circulation signals that the selling pressure has run its course, a pattern that often precedes a rebound.

US CPI data set to show inflation at three-year high in May, backing Fed hawkish tilt

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. The report is expected to show another step up in consumer inflation, driven by the persistently high Oil prices due to the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.

The US economy defies the rules: 100 days into the Oil shock and the recession signal is still missing

More than three months after the start of the Iran war and the resulting disruption to global energy markets, the US economy continues to display remarkable resilience. The conflict has triggered a sharp rise in Oil prices, reignited inflationary pressures and fueled widespread concerns about a potential economic slowdown.