US: Upside surprise in Q4 GDP – Nomura
According to the BEA’s final report, US real GDP grew at 2.9% q-o-q saar in Q4, revised up from 2.5%, and above expectations (Nomura and Consensus: 2.7%), notes the research team at Nomura.
Key Quotes
“The upside surprise can be attributed to a solid upward revision to growth in personal consumption expenditures (PCE). PCE growth was revised up by 0.2pp to 4.0% on upward revisions to spending on nondurable goods and services. Revisions to other components were mostly in line with our expectations. With real final sales at 3.4%, Q4 growth was solid. The final estimate of GDI came in at 0.9%, slightly below previous quarters. The average of GDP and GDI rose at 1.9% q-o-q saar, following 2.8% in the previous quarter.”
“GDP tracking update: Data released today were, on net, positive and led us to raise our Q1 real GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to 1.8% q-o-q saar. The components of Q4 GDP were mostly in line with our expectations and did not have a material impact on our Q1 GDP tracking estimate. The advance report from the Census Bureau indicated a widerthan-expected goods trade deficit in February, implying more drag from net exports in Q1. However, stronger-than-expected wholesale inventory accumulation implies a stronger contribution from inventory buildup in Q1, more than offsetting the increased drag from net exports. Finally, pending home sales rebounded strongly in February, a leading indicator of existing home sales, pointing to slightly more robust growth in brokers’ commissions in Q1.”
Author
Sandeep Kanihama
FXStreet Contributor
Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.
