|

US: Trade war on next level with China - Rabobank

The US is pushing ahead with plans for the next USD200bn tariff tranche by releasing the list of targeted products, which after public consultations could take effect as soon as end-August, notes the research team at Rabobank.

Key Quotes

“Covered are low-tech goods such as clothing, TV components, refrigerators, and even foods, detailed chemicals like ”4,4'-Isopropylidenediphenol (Bisphenol A, Diphenylolpropane) and its salts”, as well as high-tech items squarely aimed at slowing China’s march to ‘2025’ industrial supremacy.”

“If we see these duties kick in, nearly half of all Chinese exports will be under tariffs.”

“China has immediately responded that it will “fight fire with fire” – and yet it can’t put USD200bn of tariffs in place as it doesn’t buy USD200bn more of US goods! So where do we go? Somewhere that says ‘risk on’? Note that at time of writing CNH was back at 6.69 again, and Chinese equities are tanking.”

Author

Sandeep Kanihama

Sandeep Kanihama

FXStreet Contributor

Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.

More from Sandeep Kanihama
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD bounces toward 1.1750 as US Dollar loses strength

EUR/USD returned to the 1.1750 price zone in the American session on Friday, despite falling Wall Street, which indicates risk aversion. Trading conditions remain thin following the New Year holiday and ahead of the weekend, with the focus shifting to US employment and European data scheduled for next week.

GBP/USD nears 1.3500, holds within familiar levels

After testing 1.3400 on the last day of 2025, GBP/USD managed to stage a rebound. Nevertheless, the pair finds it difficult to gather momentum and trades with modest intraday gains at around 1.3490 as market participants remain in holiday mood.

Gold trims intraday gains, approaches $4,300

Gold retreated sharply from the $4,400  area and trades flat for the day in the $4,320 price zone. Choppy trading conditions exacerbated the intraday decline, although XAU/USD bearish case is out of the picture, considering growing expectations for a dovish Fed and persistent geopolitical tensions.

Cardano gains early New Year momentum, bulls target falling wedge breakout

Cardano kicks off the New Year on a positive note and is extending gains, trading above $0.36 at the time of writing on Friday. Improving on-chain and derivatives data point to growing bullish interest, while the technical outlook keeps an upside breakout in focus.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).