US: Recession looming? – Rabobank

Sandeep Kanihama FXStreet Contributor

Analysts at Rabobank point out that the US treasury yield curve is getting flatter and has already inverted at the 2-5 segment and suggests that their recession model now indicates a 47% probability of a recession by April 2020.

Key Quotes

“Since the FOMC thinks that inverting the yield curve does not cause a recession because ‘this time is different’, we expect the 2-10 segment of the yield curve to invert in 2019Q2, which would signal a recession in 2020Q4.”

Author

Sandeep Kanihama

FXStreet Contributor

Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.

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