US NFP Preview: 9 major banks expectations from the June release

We are closing in on the June’s release of US Non-Farm Payrolls data. The following are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of 9 major banks.

The May employment report shocked to the downside, as it showed that the US labor market only created a net new 38k jobs, well below market expectations. Surprisingly, all the 9 major banks suggests that a upward surprise is possible in net hiring and NFP is likely to print a number in between 160K to 210K while the unemployment rate could edge up to 4.8% after sliding 0.3 percentage points to post-recession lows from its last print of 4.7%.

Goldman Sachs

We forecast that nonfarm payroll growth rebounded to +210k n in June from just +38k in May. In part the pickup reflects the conclusion of a strike at Verizon Communications—this alone accounts for 70k of the month-over-month swing. However, we also see scope for improvement beyond Verizon, as other labor market data have generally looked encouraging. We expect a small increase in the unemployment rate to 4.8% after its three tenths decline in May. We see a low month-over-month gain in average hourly earnings due to calendar quirks, but the year-over-year rate should edge higher.

Nomura

The May employment report shocked to the downside, as it showed that the US labor market only created a net new 38k jobs, well below market expectations. We forecast that US nonfarm payrolls increased by a net 160k jobs in June, with 10k workers coming from the public sector, implying that private payrolls gained 150k workers. Our forecast takes into account a reversal in the decline in payrolls in the information sector of approximately 35k due to strike activity in May. Elsewhere, we expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.7% in June. Last, we forecast that average hourly earnings grew by 0.20% m-o-m (2.7% y-o-y).

MUFG

Our own model estimate for NFP does point to a rebound with our NFP model predicting 185k in June, up from 140k last month, which of course was an over-estimate of the actual print of 38k but our 140k estimate for last month was still the weakest since November 2012. The actual print last month was weaker also due to the Verizon strike which subtracted 37k from the total and that figure will be an addition to today’s reading – so based on the Bloomberg consensus for today (180k), the ex-Verizon NFP is 143k after last month’s 75k. These gains remain below the 6-month and 12-month averages of 170k and 200k respectively and hence even with a rebound, the markets will perhaps maintain concerns over a slowing US economy. Certainly a weaker than expected figure will only reinforce the current risk aversion in the markets and perhaps trigger renewed flight to quality and bigger market moves.

Danske Bank

We estimate non-farm payrolls increased 150,000 in June, which is a little lower than consensus at 175,000, but significantly higher than the May figure of 38,000. Hence, we expect jobs growth in June has rebounded from the low level in May. We expect average hourly earnings increased 0.2 % m/m in June in line with the recent trend implying an annual growth rate of 2.7 %, the highest since the crisis. The unemployment rate declined to 4.7% in May from 5.0 % in April, due to the falling participation rate. We think the large fall in the unemployment rate to 4.7% in May will be reversed a little, to 4.8 % in June.

TDS

We expect the sharp downdraft in employment to partially reverse in June, with a forecasted increase of 175k jobs. This print will be supported by the return of 34k Verizon workers who were on strike in May. The unemployment rate is forecast to increase to 4.8% from the cycle-low of 4.7% on account of an expected rebound in the labor force (following the outsized 820K decline over the prior two months), which should more than offset the gains in household employment. On the wage growth front, average hourly earnings are expected to rise modestly, posting a 0.2% m/m gain, resulting in the pace of wage growth accelerating from 2.5% to 2.7% y/y due in large part to favorable base effects.

ING

We look for something around 160-170k, which when combined with the reversal of last month’s strike blip, puts June’s NFP at about 200k. Unemployment rate may increase – but the underlying drivers are the key. Last month, the unemployment rate fell from 5.0% to 4.7%, a post-crisis low. The FOMC is becoming more upbeat on wages – expect a pick up to 2.7% YoY. At 2.5% YoY, average hourly earnings is still lower than the FOMC would like.

BMO CM

The return of 35,000 striking Verizon workers should help lift nonfarm payrolls 190,000 in June after the weakest report (38,000) in five years. The expected underlying increase (155,000) is close to this year’s norm (excluding the Verizon strike). Despite the expected decent rebound in June payrolls, the unemployment rate could edge up to 4.8% after sliding 0.3 percentage points to post-recession lows. This is because the labour force should rebound after shrinking by almost half a million. Amid slower job growth and Brexit fears, another disappointing jobs report would foment rate-cut chatter, and possibly pull the 10-year Treasury rate to all-time lows.

Westpac

The US June NFP is expected to bounce back to 190k mark while the unemployment rate is expected to stay steady at 4.7%. Come June, a bounce is anticipated, albeit not quite back to the prior-period averages. While the Verizon strike has ended, job creation has obviously slowed. Upward revisions are possible though. In coming months, the average should settle between 150k and 200k. The unemployment rate should stabilise below 5.0%.

BBH

ADP jobs data came in slightly better than expected at 172k vs. 160k consensus and a revised 168k (was 173k) in May.  For NFP, consensus is 180k vs. 38k in May.  Average hourly earnings are seen picking up to 2.7% y/y from 2.5% in May, while the unemployment rate is seen ticking up to 4.8% from 4.75 in May.

Click here to read more about the NFP preview from our Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik titled “Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: expect the unexpected”

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