US NFP Preview: 9 Major Banks expectations for April payrolls report

Today, the US jobs report for April is due to be reported at 12:30 GMT, and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of 9 major banks, regarding the upcoming employment data. Most of the economists and researchers are expecting US NFP to post-reading in between -20.5M and -30M in April, while the consensus is -22M reading. In addition, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 14% for the month.

Westpac

“Nonfarm Payrolls are set to decline by around 23M in just one month. The unemployment rate will consequently jump skyward to 17%. Underemployment will also be rampant across the economy given the ill effects of the shutdown.”

NBF

“We are calling for a 30M collapse in employment in April which would be the worst monthly print ever recorded by far. The household survey is expected to show a similarly-sized retreat in employment which would be consistent with a spike in the unemployment rate to 22.8%. But this assumes the participation rate stayed unchanged in April, a hypothesis that is unlikely to hold. With most businesses closed, many would-be workers probably chose to postpone their search for a job, a development which likely led to a decline in the participation rate. Taking this into account, the unemployment rate may ‘only’ go up to 16.5%.” 

Deutsche Bank

“DB’s US economists are forecasting an unprecedented -22M fall in Nonfarm payrolls, which would by far be the biggest monthly decline in the data going back to 1939, with the previous record being ‘only’ a -1.959m decline back in September 1945 just as WWII ended. They’re also forecasting a rise in the unemployment rate to 18.0%, which would be the highest unemployment rate for the US since the same war.” 

TDS

“Our -25M forecast for payrolls allows for some undercounting of weakness in the establishment survey data as well, with some firms not responding to the BLS because they have shut down. Average hourly earnings were probably boosted by mix shifts, with relatively more weakening in payrolls in low-wage than in high-wage jobs. We expect the 12-month change to surge to 4.1% from 3.1%, but the acceleration should be discounted; it will not reflect fundamental strengthening.”

ANZ

“Nonfarm payrolls are expected to show job losses of 21.3M with unemployment expected to have risen to 16% from 4.4% in March.”

CIBC

“The economic deep freeze will be readily apparent in a massive 20.5M decline in payrolls and a soaring jobless rate to 12.3%, although the latter could be tempered by those who aren’t bothering to look for work.” 

ING

“Our team looks for 21 million jobs to be lost in the April Nonfarm Payrolls report, triggering a spike in the unemployment rate spike to 16%.”

Danske Bank

“We expect Nonfarm payrolls to show a historical drop in employment of 25m (which is slightly more than the 21m consensus) and a rise in the unemployment rate to 15-20%.” 

Goldman Sachs

“Nonfarm Payrolls declined by 24 million in April while the unemployment rate rose from 4.4% to 14.0%. In interpreting the report, we will pay special attention to the number and share of workers on furlough or temporary layoff.”