US: June retail sales expected to show a 0.2% gain - Wells Fargo

On Tuesday, US retail sales estimates for June will be released. According to analysts at Wells Fargo, the data which will provide them with a complete look at how sales fared over the second quarter.

Key Quotes: 

“We have recently nudged our Q2 personal consumption expenditures (PCE) forecast higher to 3.4% from 2.9% previously, as spending is already on solid footing for the period. Indeed, following two solid monthly gains, retail sales rose 0.5% in May. This pushed control group sales—which exclude volatile components and are a good proxy for consumer spending—up 8.5% on a three-month annualized rate. This is the fastest pace since 2006 and suggests PCE growth is tracking well north of 3% in the second quarter.”

“Higher frequency data, such as the Redbook Index for same store sales— which covers a sample of U.S. retailers—suggest sales remained solid in June. But given a more recent wilting of confidence, we expect retail sales rose a more modest 0.2% last month.”