US: Industrial production to post 0.5% m-o-m increase in October - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect a healthy 0.5% m-o-m increase in US October industrial production as the industrial activity has been expanding at a solid pace despite some lingering impact from the recent hurricanes.

Key Quotes

“Given improvement in manufacturing activity driven by healthy domestic and foreign demand, we expect a decent increase in ex-auto manufacturing output. Further, a recovery in petrochemical production as more refineries regain their production capacities will likely contribute to ex-auto manufacturing output. Moreover, WardsAutos forecasts suggest that, after seasonal adjustment, auto assemblies will likely increase in October.”

“Elsewhere, mining sector production will likely be weak as the landfall of Hurricane Nate caused outages across many oil production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Although the US Energy Information Administration reported that most of these platforms had returned to operation, this transitory decline likely lowered the crude oil output in the month. However, looking through weather-related volatility, crude oil output’s recovery appears resilient. Recent increases in global oil prices will likely contribute to oil output growth.”