US GDP Preview: Forecasts from ten major banks, firm growth

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its first estimate of the fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday, January 26 at 13:30 GMT as we get closer to the release time, here are forecasts from economists and researchers of ten major banks regarding the upcoming growth data. 

Economists expect the United States to report an annualized growth rate of 2.8% in the last quarter of 2022, slower than the 3.2% clip recorded in the three months ending in September. 

Danske Bank

“We look 2.8% QoQ AR in the Q4 22 GDP figures.”

ING

“The fourth quarter GDP report is expected to show that the economy expanded at a rate in excess of 2% annualised. Consumer spending should be an important driver given the strong performance in October, but aside from that, the growth will largely be focused on net trade and inventory building. This is not ‘good’ growth. Imports are falling because of the deteriorating domestic growth story while inventories are increasing, partly because of improved supply chains, but also because demand is not as strong as many businesses expected. The GDP growth figures over the next few quarters will be much weaker.”

TDS

“We look for GDP growth to have stayed strong in Q4, posting another above-trend gain (3.4%). Growth was likely supported by firm showings from the consumer and inventories.”

RBC Economics

“Q4 US GDP growth likely slowed in Q3 (we expect a 2.0% annualized increase) due to a wider net trade deficit and weak residential investment offsetting stronger consumer spending growth.”

SocGen

“Real GDP is likely to come to 2.6%. Many economists predict even faster growth. We expect real consumption of 2.6%, which serves as the base of our economic-wide prediction. Business investment grew faster, but a widening deficit should exert a drag. If we are correct, real GDP was 0.8% 4Q/4Q, which is faster than the FOMC projected just last December (+0.5% projected as part of the summary of economic projections) and much faster than the 0.2% growth projected by the FOMC last September.” 

NBF

“Growth likely lost some momentum in the quarter, hampered by sinking residential investment and a sharp decline in real exports. Household spending, on the other hand, should have remained quite strong, lifting the headline growth figure. Positive contributions are also expected from non-residential investment, government spending and inventories. Our call is for a 2.0% annualized expansion.”

Deutsche Bank

“We'll see how growth was faring going into this year with Q4 US GDP on Thursday. Our economists expect +3.2% annualised (consensus +2.7%). Interestingly they expect +1.8% for Q1 with H2 being where the US recession hits. Consensus on Bloomberg is around 0% for Q1 so that's a potential battleground once actual hard data comes through.”

Citibank

“We expect a 2.5% annualized increase in real GDP by expenditure in Q4, another quarter of above-potential GDP growth despite much higher interest rates weighing on sectors like housing.”

CIBC

“Although momentum tailed off over the quarter, our forecast for an impressive 2.9% annualized advance in Q4 GDP is driven by a strong showing from consumers, reflecting expected increases in both goods and services consumption. We’re in line with the consensus forecast and market reaction should therefore be limited.”

Wells Fargo

“We estimate that real GDP rose 2.8% on a quarterly annualized basis during that period. While a mild recession beginning in Q3-2023 remains our base case forecast, economic growth appears to have ended 2022 on a positive note.”