US: Economy set to move down a gear - NBF

According to Krishen Rangasamy, analyst at National Bank Financial, the US economy is set to move down a gear, after a strong performance in 2018.

Key Quotes

“Domestic demand will decelerate as the impact of fiscal stimulus fades, taking steam out of consumption and business investment. Hammered by earlier dollar appreciation, trade will continue to subtract from growth.”

“As such, we remain comfortable with our forecast of 2.3% for 2019 U.S. GDP growth (or just 1.8% Q4/Q4). The latter is consistent with our view that there will be no more than one rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year. A flat yield curve and the possibility of inversion do not bode well for the credit cycle and hence GDP growth after 2019.”

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