Commenting on the US growth data, "GDP growth slowed to 1.1% q/q annualised, according to the advance estimate, which was well below our and consensus forecasts for a 2% expansion, and down from 2.6% growth in Q4," said Bill Diviney, Senior Economist at ABN Amro.
Consumption still grew very strongly in the first quarter
While the main drag came from a drop in inventories (which subtracted a whopping 2.7pp from growth), a large downward revision to retail sales also meant consumption was not as strong as expected. Indeed, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now tracker had already suggested a big miss the day prior to the release of the GDP report, due to the revision to retail sales. Despite that downward revision, consumption still grew very strongly in the first quarter, by 3.7% annualised, with a 16.9% surge in durable goods consumption responsible for the strength (services consumption growth was much more moderate at 2.3%).
The exceptional strength in goods consumption has been a surprise in the first quarter, given that for much of last year goods consumption had been on a cooling trend. Still, looking at more recent high frequency data does suggest goods consumption has since resumed its cooling trend, with for instance Redbook weekly department store sales slowing sharply of late. At the same time, there has been a tendency for repeated downward revisions to consumption data in the post-pandemic period, likely reflecting difficulty in measuring price effects in the current high inflation environment. As such, it would not be a surprise if the Q1 strength in consumption is further revised away in future GDP estimates.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD holds above 0.6500 in thin trading
The Australian Dollar managed to recover ground against its American rival after AUD/USD fell to 0.6484. The upbeat tone of Wall Street underpinned the Aussie despite broad US Dollar strength and tepid Australian data.
EUR/USD comfortable below 1.0800 lower lows at sight
The EUR/USD pair lost ground on Thursday and settled near a fresh March low of 1.0774. Strong US data and hawkish Fed speakers comments lead the way ahead of the release of the US PCE Price Index on Friday.
Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $2,200
Gold retreats from daily highs but holds comfortably above $2,200 in the American session on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays near 4.2% after upbeat US data and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to gather further bullish momentum.
Google starts indexing Bitcoin addresses
Bitcoin address data is live on Google search results after users realized on Thursday that the tech giant started indexing Bitcoin blockchain data. However, mixed reactions have followed the tech giant's reversed stance on the cryptocurrency.
A Hollywood ending for fourth quarter GDP
The latest revisions put Q4 GDP at 3.4%, the second fastest quarterly growth rate in two years. Much of the upside was attributable to stronger consumer spending, yet fresh profits data affirmed it was a good quarter for the bottom line as well with profits up by the most since the Q2-2022.