- The DXY index surged, trading with gains above the 200-day SMA at 103.70.
- Growing tensions between Israel and Hamas made investors seek refuge in the USD.
- Key US economic reports due this week: ISM Services PMI, ADP Employment Change, November Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate.
The US Dollar (USD) edged higher on Monday, with the Dollar Index (DXY) sailing past the 103.70 mark, above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and pushing a sour market mood amid rising Treasury yields.
For the rest of the week, key drivers are on the horizon as investors eye Friday's release of Nonfarm Payrolls for November alongside the Unemployment Rate, while the ISM Services PMI is due on Tuesday and the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change report on Wednesday.
Despite mixed signals from the US labour market and cooling inflation in the United States economy, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials indicated a possibility for further policy tightening, signifying a subtly hawkish stance. This week’s key labour market data will influence the modelling of expectations and the Fed's policy trajectory, which could define the short-term trajectory of the US Dollar.
Daily Market Movers: US Dollar on the rise ahead of labor market data
- The US Dollar is currently trading with gains, with the DXY Index showing a positive upward trend neatly tucked above 103.70.
- The US Dollar's upward trend appears largely driven by a sour market mood and rising bond yields.
- No significant reports have surfaced during the session that could impact the US Dollar's current trajectory.
- Market participants have their eyes set on key economic reports due this week. On the list are the Nonfarm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI updates, scheduled for release on Friday, Wednesday and Tuesday, respectively.
- Overall, all reports are expected to show that the job creation picked up in November, while the ISM Services PMI is seen accelerating regarding its last reading of October.
- US bond yields are edging higher, aligning with the Dollar's uptick. Specifically, the 2, 5 and 10-year yield rates are up, trading at 4.65%, 4.24%, and 4.29%, respectively.
- The CME FedWatch Tool indicates no hikes are priced in for the upcoming December meeting, and markets speculate on rate cuts in mid-2024.
Technical Analysis: US Dollar struggles amid negative territory RSI and subdued SMAs
The indicators on the daily chart are reflecting a predominance of selling momentum. The index position, below the 20 and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), indicates that the bears are maintaining control. This control is also noticeable from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which shows a positive slope but remains in negative territory. This reveals that although buyers are gaining some strength, they are yet to overpower the sellers.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signifies decreasing red bars, adding further evidence of shrinking selling momentum. This deceleration is credited to the bears taking a breather after driving the index to its lowest level since last August.
.
Support levels: 103.60, 103.30, 103.15, 103.00.
Resistance levels: 104.10 (20-day SMA), 104.40 (100-day SMA), 104.50.
Risk sentiment FAQs
What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets?
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics?
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"?
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"?
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds losses below 1.0600 ahead of US NFP release
EUR/USD stays defensive below 1.0600 in the European session on Friday. The US Dollar holds ground due to profit-taking and a softer risk tone. Traders refrain from placing fresh bets on the pair ahead of the critical US Nonfarm Payrolls data release.
Gold stays below $2,640 ahead of US NFP report
Gold price struggles to capitalize on its goodish intraday bounce from a one-and-half-week low touched earlier this Friday, though it manages to hold above $2,630. Investors refrain from taking large positions ahead of the November jobs report from the US.
US Nonfarm Payrolls set to show hiring bounced back in November after October’s blip
Economists expect the Employment Report to show that the US economy created 200,000 jobs in November, following a meagre gain of 12K in October due to distortions caused by two hurricanes and the strike at Boeing.
Bitcoin experiences volatility post $100K milestone
Bitcoin rebounds to $97,000 on Friday after a volatile drop to $90,500, following its $100K milestone the day before. Ethereum maintains bullish momentum above key support levels, signaling a potential rally toward $4,000. In contrast, Ripple exhibits bearish tendencies, hinting at further declines.
GBP/USD eases from multi-week high, trades with negative bias below mid-1.2700s
GBP/USD struggles to capitalize on its gains registered over the past three days. BoE Governor predicted four rate cuts in 2025 and weigh on the British Pound. Subdued USD price action could support the pair ahead of the US NFP report.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.