US Dollar Index regains some ground and returns to 93.30, Fedspeak in sight

DXY remains depressed in multi-day lows near 93.20.
Stimulus hopes keep weighing on the dollar on Monday.
The NAHB Index improved further to 85 in October (from 83).

Pablo Piovano FXStreet

The selling bias around the greenback stays well and sound and drags the US Dollar Index (DXY) to the 93.20 region, or new 4-day lows.

US Dollar Index offered on politics

The index adds to Friday’s decline and drops to multi-day lows in the 93.20 region on Monday, managing to regain some composure soon afterwards.

The moderate pullback in the dollar comes amidst rising speculations that a new stimulus bill could be further discussed later in the week. It is worth recalling that Trump’s proposal last week came in significantly short of expectations, opening the door to further political uncertainty and extra wings to the buck.

In the US data space, the NAHB Index surpassed consensus in October at 85 (from 83) and reached a fresh record high.

Nothing worth mentioning from Powell’s discussion panel on digital currencies earlier in the session, while FOMC’s R.Clarida (permanent voter, dovish), New York Fed J.Williams (permanent voter, centrist), Atlanta Fed R.Bostic (2021 voter, centrist) and Philly Fed P.Harker (voter, hawkish) are all due to speak later.

What to look for around USD

The index met solid contention in the 93.00 region so far this month. Occasional bullish attempts, however, are seen as temporary, as the underlying sentiment towards the greenback remains cautious. This view is reinforced by the “lower for longer” stance from the Federal Reserve, hopes of a strong recovery in the global economy and rising bets of a “blue wave” win at the presidential elections. Developments around another US stimulus package also collaborate with the vigilant stance around the buck.

US Dollar Index relevant levels

At the moment, the index is losing 0.41% at 93.34 and faces immediate contention at 93.01 (monthly low Oct.12) followed by 92.70 (weekly low Sep.10) and then 91.92 (23.6% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop). On the other hand, a break above 94.20 (38.2% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 drop) would aim for 94.74 (monthly high Sep.25) and finally 96.03 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop).

Author

Pablo Piovano

FXStreet

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

AUD/USD turns south toward 0.6900 as USD firms up

AUD/USD sees fresh selling and drops toward 0.6900 in late Asian trading on Monday, as renewed US Dollar strength weighs on the pair amid lingering Middle East and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions. Focus remains on Oil prices, Treasury bond yields, and RBA expectations for fresh trading impetus in the major.

USD/JPY retakes 158.00 amid hawkish BoJ bets, firmer USD

USD/JPY erases losses and retakes 158.00 in the Asian session on Monday, trading within a one-week-old range. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin the US Dollar, despite fading Fed rate hike hopes, supporting the pair's rebound. However, further upside could be capped by hawkish BoJ expectations and looming intervention risks that could support the Japanese Yen.

Gold languishes below $4,200 amid high US yields

Gold trims some losses on Monday, but remains trapped within previous ranges, with upside attempts limited below $4,200 and with two-month lows of $4,110 at a short distance. The recent pullback on the US Dollar Index has provided some support for precious metals although the high US Treasury yields are keeping a floor on US Dollar dips so far.

Pi Network risks a steeper decline as bearish momentum builds

Pi Network extends losses below $0.090 maintaining a steady decline for the fifth consecutive day. The retail demand remains firm, with the notional value of active perpeutals holding above $10 million. The technical outlook for PI remains bearish as bearish momentum mounts.

ISM Services PMI expected to show robust US economy in September

The US ISM Services PMI is expected to improve marginally in September. The US services sector is expected to remain well into expansionary territory. Bets of further Fed tightening appear to have lost traction in the last few days.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082. The decline reflects a powerful combination of US Dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns about Europe's exposure to higher energy prices.