US CPI inflation in focus – ANZ

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) offer a snippet of their expectations on the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the United States (US) this week.

Key quotes

“Nonfarm Payrolls came in almost double expectations in September at 336k. The headline number may overstate the strength of the labor market as the average number of hours worked per week has been declining recently amid fewer full-time and more part-time jobs.

The outsized payroll number raises the prospect the Fed may hike again, but it’s not a clincher. September Consumer Price Index data out this week should be more revealing. We expect core inflation to rise by 0.2% m/m, which should be well received by the Fed.

The recent rise in yields has caught the eye of several Fed officials. They argue that if this rise is to be sustained there may not be a need for the 25bp rise included in the Fed’s 2023 dot plot.

The September FOMC minutes are likely to be scrutinized for discussions around the confidence in the soft-landing scenario which is laid out in the median Fed officials projections. In addition, getting some sense of the views around the restrictiveness of monetary policy.”