Data released today showed that retail sales dropped 0.2% in April while March numbers were revised even higher. According to analysts at Wells Fargo, the PCE is on track for a smaller Q2 rebound.
“After a surge in March retail sales, which was among the biggest monthly increases in the past decade, April sales were a disappointment—falling 0.2%.”
“Some smoothing techniques help see through some of the recent volatility. The bottom left chart demonstrates that with a 3-month moving average, both the year-over-year and the 3-month annualized growth rate for retail sales are 3.0%.”
“The high starting point for Q2 afforded by the solid increase in March means that PCE is still on track for a decent quarter, barring a complete deterioration in May and June.”
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