US-China: Rising optimism over trade talks – Danske Bank


Danske Bank analysts point out that this week provided further optimism that the trade war has peaked and a phase one deal is in the pipeline - a deal that could include a roll-back of some tariffs. 

Key Quotes

China's spokesman from the Ministry of Commerce said on Thursday that 'in the past two weeks, top negotiators had serious, constructive discussions and agreed to remove the additional tariffs in phases as progress is made on the agreement'. Both sides agreed to reduce tariffs proportionately and at the same time in different tranches as sequential deals are struck.”

“China is pushing the US to cancel the tariff increase in December and remove the 15% tariff rate imposed on 1 September on Chinese goods worth USD125bn. According to Reuters China also aims for relief from 25% tariffs put on goods worth USD250bn. White House spokesperson Stephanie Grisham told Fox News on Thursday the US is "very, very optimistic" about completing a trade deal.”

The timing of a phase one deal is uncertain and according to a US official it may stretch into December. The location is also not agreed upon and a dozen places have been aired ranging from Iowa, Alaska and Hawaii to London, Sweden and Switzerland. The signing spot may depend on when a deal is ready, as it could take place in connection with other travel by the two presidents of US and China.”

A few things happening on the Chinese side should help soothe the atmosphere for the continued trade talks: this week nine Fentanyl smugglers were jailed in a landmark US-China cooperation. The crackdown on opioid shipping from China to the US was part of the first ceasefire deal made between Xi and Trump at the G20 meeting in December 2018. In August, however, Trump accused China of delaying action on this. Another positive thing happening was a Chinese removal of curbs on US poultry imports.”

“We look for a phase one deal to be signed in late November or early December and expect it to include a roll-back of the 1 September 15% tariff hike on USD125bn of goods. A deal will also include China buying more agricultural goods, which we suspect Trump is quite anxious to get started as US farmers are hurting badly from the trade war, and farmers are key in the political swing states Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin.”

It will still be a tough deal to make, though, and we should be prepared for potential set-backs on the way. China has some leverage due to the weakening US economy that will increasingly hurt Trump's re-election platform. On the other hand, China also wants a solution to the trade war in order to slow down the pace of companies that are leaving China for production in other countries. So the two sides should be able to land a phase one deal.”

 

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: Bearish hammer on D1 ahead of ECB minutes

EUR/USD is looking heavy ahead of the minutes of the ECB Oct policy meeting, which are expected to show the members stand divided on which course to take. Waning trade optimism will likely keep the EUR on the defensive.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD turns positive above 21-DMA as challenges to Tories recede

With the Tory supporters paying little heed to the previous day’s ITV debate, not to forget a surprise turnaround in the opposition Labour party loyalists, GBP/USD trades  better bid above 1.2900 while heading into the London open on Thu.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY bounces-off 50-DMA but lacks follow-through

USD/JPY has bounced up from the 50-day MA support of 108.28. China's Vice Premier Liu He is cautiously optimistic about the prospects of the US-China trade deal. Related markets, however, are not buying Liu He's optimism, keeping the recovery in check. 

USD/JPY News

Gold: Doji on D1 questions bulls amid mixed trade sentiment

Although the United States’ (US) support for Hong Kong protesters favors the broad risk-off momentum, the mixed response from Chinese diplomats and a bearish candlestick formation question Gold buyers around $1,473 during early Thursday.

Gold News

Hong Kong now a feature in trade negotiations?

The US Senate and House have both passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Bill, so now it heads to the desk of US President Trump to either sign or veto it. Sources suggest that the President will sign it into law.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures