According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, January CPI report in the US due this afternoon is the data highlight of the week.
“The consensus expects a +0.2% mom core reading although base effects are expected to result in a small pullback in the annual rate to +2.1% yoy. That said, the seasonal revisions this week resulted in a slightly lower January 2018 reading which therefore makes for a lower hurdle to keeping the year-on-year rate near recent levels.”
“Our US economists also highlight that the December print was boosted by outsized gains in a few specific categories so it wouldn’t be a great surprise to see some payback. Another interesting point our colleagues make is that January prints have tended to be higher than in other months, suggesting some residual seasonality.”
“Over the past five years, January prints have averaged about 5bps higher than the prints in the other months of the year, though the recent methodological revisions are supposed to reduce this discrepancy by around half. So a bit more uncertainty than usual in the numbers today.”
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