The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield has come close to the May and October highs at 1.71%. Above here, the April peak at 1.78% and also the 200-week moving average at 1.83% beckon, analysts at Commerzbank report.

Long-term bullish forecast while above 1.25%

“The US 10Y yield tested the eight-month resistance line at 1.70% and nearly probed the May and October highs at 1.71%, a rise above which would push the April peak at 1.78% and also the 200-week moving average at 1.83% to the fore. Further up the 55-month moving average can be found at 1.89% and the September 2017 low and November 2019 high at 1.98/2.01%.”

“The 1.98/2.01%target area will remain in play while the yield stays above the last reaction low at 1.51% on a daily chart closing basis Below it lies the 1.48/45% region, made up of the mid-October low, 200-day moving average and four-month support line. Further down sits the current November low at 1.41%.”

“Overall upside pressure should prevail while the August-to-mid-September highs at 1.39% continue to underpin on a daily chart closing basis. Further support is seen at the June low at 1.35%.”

“While the yield remains above the 1.25% mid-September low we will retain our long-term bullish forecast.”


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