UK’s Road to Brexit: May’s Cabinet to unveil Brexit vision with six speeches - ING

Brexit-headline risks for GBP are likely to increase in the near-term after the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier stated last week that a transition period is ‘not a given’, points out Viraj Patel, Foreign Exchange Strategist at ING.

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“It seems the sticking points are the usual divisions between the UK and EU over the freedom of movement principle and understanding the UK’s position on access to the customs union and single market during the transition period.”

“Be it luck or chance, Prime Minister Theresa May is set to outline her vision on the UK’s future relationship with the EU in a series of speeches over the next few weeks – which, in principle, should deliver some of the clarity that her negotiating counterparts desire. There are reported to be a series of six speeches – two from the PM herself (with the first one on Saturday 17 Feb), while we will also hear from Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson (Wednesday 14 February), Brexit Secretary David Davis (tbc), Trade Secretary Liam Fox (tbc) and de facto Deputy David Lidington (tbc).”

“More importantly for markets, these speeches will shed light on the prospects of a Brexit transition deal being agreed by the end of March 2018 – which a recent CBI survey shows is when the majority of large UK businesses would look to implement ‘cliff edge’ Brexit contingency plans if there were no transitional arrangements tabled.”