UK’s NIESR sees one in four chance UK already in a technical recession

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

The UK think tank, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), warned that the British economy may have fallen into a technical recession, in the face of disorderly Brexit risks.

Key Findings:

Sees 2019 GDP growth +1.2%, 2020 +1.1%.

Assumes no-deal Brexit avoided.

Severe downturn possible in case of disorderly no-deal Brexit.

UK economy would stagnate in 2020 in case of orderly no deal, return to growth in 2021.

Sees one in four chance UK already in a technical recession.

Expects BOE to raise interest rates to 1% in H2 2020 in case of Brexit deal.

Sees roughly 40% chance of no deal Brexit.

Long run impact of no deal Brexit will be to reduce GDP by 5% vs. staying in EU or soft Brexit.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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