The UK think tank, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), warned that the British economy may have fallen into a technical recession, in the face of disorderly Brexit risks.
Sees 2019 GDP growth +1.2%, 2020 +1.1%.
Assumes no-deal Brexit avoided.
Severe downturn possible in case of disorderly no-deal Brexit.
UK economy would stagnate in 2020 in case of orderly no deal, return to growth in 2021.
Sees one in four chance UK already in a technical recession.
Expects BOE to raise interest rates to 1% in H2 2020 in case of Brexit deal.
Sees roughly 40% chance of no deal Brexit.
Long run impact of no deal Brexit will be to reduce GDP by 5% vs. staying in EU or soft Brexit.
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