UK: Data and surveys preview – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank outlines a busy UK data calendar, expecting stronger Net Consumer Credit, a partial rebound in Mortgage Approvals to 64.5k, and unchanged PMI Manufacturing and Services at 52.0 and 53.9. The bank anticipates softer DMP price, wage and CPI expectations and another negative employment expectations print.

Credit, PMIs, DMP and fiscal update

"It's a big week ahead. Key for markets will be the Spring Statement. We will also get the final PMIs and DMP survey data. We will also get the BRC Shop Price data and the January credit release."

"We expect net consumer credit to ramp up to GBP 1.7bn. Indeed, retail sales data pointed to a sizeable jump to start the year. And we expect stronger consumer spending to come partly as a result of a jump in credit. On mortgage approvals, we expect the December drop to partly unwind, with data pushing higher to 64.5k. Indeed, new buyer enquiries have picked up since December, according to the RICS survey."

"Perhaps the most important survey data coming out in the week ahead will be the February DMP survey. Here, we will be watching three things. One, firms' output price expectations. We expect this to inch lower to 3.4%. Two, firms' wage growth expectations. Our models point to a small drop off here too - to 3.5%. Three, firms' CPI expectations. We see this also softening. Latest household expectations slowed in February."

"And with CPI slowing, we expect firms to adjust their expectations lower - both in the near-term and medium-term. The last thing to watch will be firms' employment expectations. Another negative print seems likely in the year ahead. We will be watching this closely for any signs of improvement."

"On the PMI releases, we expect no change from the flash print. We see the manufacturing PMI headline staying put at 52. And we expect the services PMI headline index to also stick at 53.9. On construction, we expect the headline data to show a steady improvement to 48.5. Elsewhere, we get the BRC Shop Price Index. After a bigger than expected bump in January, we will be watching closely how retailers continue to price discounts/promotions - particularly around food."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)