UK week ahead: jobs report and GDP - Danske Bank

Next week in the UK the main economic reports include jobs data and GDP growth. Analysts from Danske Bank, expect the annual growth in average weekly earnings ex bonuses (three-month average) to decline to 2.2% y/y from 2.3% y/y while they see annual growth GDP slowing to 1.4% y/y. 

Key Quotes: 

“In the UK, the jobs report for November is released on Wednesday. There are some signs that employment is no longer increasing at the same pace as previously or possibly has even stagnated. So in this jobs report we will look for signs whether this was just transitory or not. We estimate the unemployment rate (three-month average) was unchanged at 4.3%. We expect the annual growth in average weekly earnings ex bonuses (three-month average) declined to 2.2% y/y from 2.3% y/y, underlining that there is no big wage pressure present in the UK yet.”

“On Friday, the first estimate of GDP growth in Q4 is due out. PMIs suggest GDP growth was 0.4%-0.5% but the NIESR GDP estimate says it could have been as high as 0.6%! We estimate GDP growth was 0.4% but given the indicators there are upside risks to this forecast. If we are right about our quarterly forecast, the annual growth in GDP has slowed to 1.4% y/y, the slowest since Q2 12. Growth accelerated in H2 17 driven by higher manufacturing production growth, in line with the pick up in rest of Europe.”