UK: Trade and GDP data in the limelight today – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura point out that UK’s trade deficit remained unchanged at GBP12.4bn in May, around GBP1bn higher than it was on average during 2011.

Key Quotes

“Annual growth in underlying exports values has turned negative in recent months – that in part may reflect the strength of world trade growth a year ago, but also a weaker trade outlook presently.”

“Monthly GDP, Q2: Last month the ONS switched the way it produces its GDP statistics from a quarterly to a rolling monthly basis. We already know the GDP data for April and May, and because June is the last month of the quarter it has only a small impact on Q2 growth as a whole. Were GDP to be flat between May and June it would be up 0.3% q-o-q, while anything between 0.1% and 0.3% for the month of June would produce 0.4% quarterly growth in Q2. We forecast 0.1% m-o-m for June and 0.4% q-o-q for Q2. Note that industrial, construction and services output are published at the same time for June, as well as the expenditure detail for Q2 as a whole.”