In view of the analysts at BBH, many seem to be treating the recently announced UK election as a foregone conclusion wherein Tories will increase their majority and while it seems true in a narrow sense, it may be politically naive.
Key Quotes
“The Tory Party, after all, is a coalition. Doesn't the impact of the election results depend on which Tories win? Some observers linked sterling’s rally on the announcement to ideas that it could produce a softer Brexit. That seems to be to assume what one must prove. Couldn't soft Brexit Labour MPs be replaced by harder-line Tories?”
“Before getting to the national election, local elections will be held on May 4. English, Welsh, and Scottish councils will be chosen, as will the newly created English Regional Mayors. Labour goes into the contest with the most council seats overall (1535 vs. 1136 for the Tories). The results will be scrutinized to see clues into the national contest. A significant loss for Labour, as some are predicting, will likely spur talk of Corbyn stepping down, and demoralize and further weaken the main opposition party.”
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