UK: A big Conservative win – ING

ING analysts suggests that only a few predicted the scale of Boris Johnson and his Conservative Party’s victory in the UK general elections and is set to have a majority of nearly 80 in the House of Commons.

Key Quotes

“For Brexit, this all means that Johnson’s deal will be ratified, most likely allowing the UK to leave the EU at the end of January. But more importantly, it could give the prime minister the political breathing room to ask for an extension to the transition period.”

“This is the standstill phase where the UK’s trading relationship remains unchanged, where the government hopes to negotiate the terms of the future deal. But spanning just 11-months, this is unlikely to be long enough. An extension is an option, but the EU has signalled the UK will need to sign-up to budget payments beyond 2020 – and importantly that this needs to be agreed by the end of June.”

“This would undoubtedly infuriate hardline pro-Brexit Conservative MPs, and until now the government has ruled out an extended transition. But with a sizable majority, this could change – an extension is probably more likely than not.”

“If the government decides that there is merit in ending the transition period in 2020, there is really very little Parliament can do about it. MPs are unlikely to be able to seize control, as they did in March and September. Don’t forget a number of the moderate Conservative MPs that backed efforts to force an Article 50 extension in April and October stood down at this election.”