UK: PM May still needs to move mountains to get Brexit deal done – Standard Chartered

According to Christopher Graham, economist at Standard Chartered, a Brexit deal with the support of a majority (at least 320) of UK Members of Parliament (MPs) remains lacking and we have just over five weeks until the 29 March deadline.

Key Quotes

“A key reason for this is the breakdown of party politics in recent months: 11 MPs from both sides of the aisle have quit their respective parties in recent days, and both the Conservative and Labour parties are looking increasingly fractured. Our core view remains that a deal will eventually be passed in Parliament, but only just.”

“All other options, ranging from a no-deal exit to a second referendum, remain on the table. If a deal is not reached as the 29 March deadline approaches, but negotiations are still active, both sides could agree to a short-term extension to Article 50.”

“We identify factions within both the government and opposition, and assess how they are likely to vote based on different types of deal and different time periods. We think that greater concessions from the EU and time pressure closer to the deadline will increase the likelihood that a deal will pass.”

“If Parliament gains control over the political process, an Article 50 extension would reset the deadline. Such an outcome would not necessarily improve the chances of a deal being agreed - with less immediate pressure for compromise and more time to make preparations for an abrupt exit from the EU, a ‘no deal’ could still result.”