The analysis team of Lloyds Bank is looking for a fall of 0.5%m/m in UK’s retail volume sales in official March figures which would result in a 1.2% quarterly decline, the first drop since 2013.
“Today’s retail sales report for March will provide the domestic focus. Despite February’s strong rebound, declines in the previous three months on the ex-fuels measure suggests that the underlying momentum for retail activity has weakened. For March, the GfK consumer confidence index was unchanged, but other indicators such as the John Lewis weekly sales figures, CBI distributive trades survey and the BRC point to a drop in sales. In particular, the BRC numbers show a fall of 1.0%y/y in value sales, compared with 0.4%y/y in February, alongside stronger shop prices.”