UK: Headline wage growth seen slowing to 3.0% YoY – TDS

In the view of the analysts at TD Securities (TDS), the UK ILO Unemployment Rate is likely to tick higher in December while the wage growth to lag.

Key Quotes:

“While the Bank of England's last MPR looks for the unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 3.8% for the next 3-4 months, we look for an uptick to 3.9% in December (mkt 3.8%), with the potential for another pop higher in January.

For wage growth we look for the recent pattern of deceleration to continue, with headline wage growth slowing to 3.0% y/y (mkt 3.0%), and private sector regular pay to 3.3% y/y (mkt: 3.3%).

For the latter measure, the short-term trend growth rate has more than halved from a peak of 5.0% on a 3m/3m annualized basis in July to 2.2% as of November.”