UK: GDP, industrial production and trade data in the limelight – Nomura
Analysts at Nomura point out that the goods trade deficit of UK improved by just over £1bn between May and June thanks to a combination of an improving underlying deficit and a larger erratics surplus, only partly offset by a fall in oil exports.
Key Quotes
“There is a risk of a wider deficit in July if the 6.4% rise in exports over the past two months reverses.”
“Monthly GDP: Because of the strong start to the May-Jul quarter (which was generated by growth in the single month of May of 0.3% m-o-m) it means that it is quite easy to see a 0.5% print on the non-overlapping quarterly growth rate (that is, growth of 0.5% in the May-Jul period relative to Feb-Apr). All we would need for that is for GDP not to decline by more than 0.1% during the month. And should GDP rise by 0.2% then that would be enough to push the quarterly rate of growth to 0.6%.”
“Industrial production: These figures have, in their own right, become a little less interesting to the markets of late because the new monthly GDP figures are published on the same day. While the surveys remain consistent with a small increase in manufacturing output in July, there is a risk of a negative print after the past two months of growth (a rise of more than 1% over that period).”
Author
Sandeep Kanihama
FXStreet Contributor
Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.
