UK: Buckle up... it's going to be a bumpy Brexit ride - ING

Sandeep Kanihama FXStreet Contributor

Analysts at ING suggest that while Governor Carney will feature in the star-studded panel of central bank speakers in Frankfurt this week (Tue), they doubt that the BoE chief will attempt to actively talk markets up when it comes to the timing of the central bank's next rate hike.

Key Quotes

“It is understandable as to why the MPC are reluctant to show their policy hand amid what is set to be a crucial few weeks of Brexit negotiations - and while we do think the dovish repricing of BoE policy expectations in markets has been a tad excessive, it will be up to the data to do the talking. This week's UK data splurge – which includes the latest CPI (Tue), jobs and wage growth (Wed), retail sales (Thu) – is unlikely to be game-changing for the overall policy outlook, although some positive surprises (especially on the wage growth front) may see sentiment for a second rate hike in 2018 resurface.”

“The Brexit rollercoaster is set to continue as we countdown to the pivotal 14-15 DecEU summit. After setting a two-week deadline, the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier has made it clear that the ball is in the UK's court to make some headway in settling the divorce bill. Domestic politics continues to focus on Theresa May's leadership after theSunday Times reported that 40 Tory MPs are ready to sign a letter of no confidence in the Prime Minister (still short of the 48 threshold needed to trigger a leadership contest). Equally, we may see further leaks related to the Chancellor's Budget (22 Nov); while Philip Hammond's hands will be tied by weaker OBR growth forecasts - as well as higher inflation forecasts that increased debt-servicing costs - any growth gimmicks may lend itself to a steeper UK rate curve and some GBP support.”

Author

Sandeep Kanihama

FXStreet Contributor

Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.

AUD/USD stays bid above 0.7100 on Australian trade data, Mideast optimism

AUD/USD clings to minor recovery gains above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Thursday as a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire keeps a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar. Meanwhile, strong AustralianTrade Balane data also help the Aussie pair sustain the bounce from weekly lows.

USD/JPY hovers near the 160.00 intervention threshold on Mideast tensions

USD/JPY struggles to find acceptance above 160.00 and retreats from a one-month high in the Asian session on Thursday amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire caps the US Dollar and supports the currency pair. However, renewed US-Iran tensions keep the downside limited in the Greenback and the pair.

Gold rebounds from one-week low as Israel-Lebanon truce pressures safe-haven USD

Gold gains some positive traction on Thursday and climbs to the $4,475 area during the Asian session, reversing a major part of the previous day's slide to a one-week low. The Israel-Lebanon truce prompts some profit-taking around the US Dollar and supports the commodity.

Hyperliquid: ETF demand, capital rotation fuel HYPE rally as Bitcoin melts

Hyperliquid price sustains an upward trend near its all-time high of $75.76 on Thursday after posting 80% gains in May, while Bitcoin (BTC) retraces below $65,000, triggering a market-wide panic.

Kevin Warsh takes the Fed helm: What it means for the US Dollar

The Federal Reserve moves away from the highly predictable "forward guidance" model of the Jerome Powell era to a new “Kevin Warsh environment”, characterized by less communication, more policy surprises, and an increased focus on the Fed's complex balance sheet.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.