TRY: Unexpectedly dovish – Commerzbank

The Turkish central bank (CBT) held rates unchanged yesterday, as had been unanimously expected, but turned somewhat dovish in its language, contrary to our expectation. CBT removed some language related to inflation uncertainty from its statement and seemed to emphasise disinflationary developments over and above other risks. Most central banks tend to state, generically, that they will maintain a tight monetary stance and ensure all other measures until inflation expectations had fully converged – CBT also conveys this, of course – but such a generic promise is not an assurance that the CB will not lower rates, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes.

USD/TRY surpasses the 34.50 level earlier this week

“We can witness within regional examples, for example the Czech National Bank, that a CB can steadily cut rates but still call its policy restrictive. In this sense, if CBT were to cut the interest rate from 50% to 45%, it could possibly claim that 45% still makes for a very restrictive monetary policy. A play with words mostly.”

“In our view specifically, a rate cut already at the next meeting (26 December) would qualify as premature. This is because we have only had one month of underlying inflation moderation (October). We repeat on these pages that the fresh rate of price increase (month-on-month, seasonally-adjusted) is still far too rapid in Turkey – and the economy has barely begun to cool down. Some measured rate cuts would be justified as and when a clear disinflationary trend has been established at underlying level (not year-on-year rate of change).”

“The idea of immediate rate cuts may trigger speculation about whether or not there was pressure from President Tayyip Erdogan – which would be all negative for the lira. USD/TRY surpassed our 34.50 year-end forecast earlier this week, and we may have to revise our 2025 target higher in the event that CBT’s future actions appear ‘pre-ordained’ rather than data-dependent.”