Trump’s tariff threat on China sinks US Dollar as market sentiment deteriorates

The US Dollar Index falls below 99.00 as traders react to renewed trade tensions between the United States and China.
US President Donald Trump threatens a “massive increase” in tariffs on Chinese goods following Beijing’s new restrictions on rare earth exports.
Rising geopolitical uncertainty and fears of retaliatory measures weigh on risk appetite and push the Greenback lower.

Ghiles Guezout FXStreet

The US Dollar Index (DXY) drops by 0.48% to trade around 98.90 on Friday at the time of writing, extending its recent weakness as global investors react to a new escalation in trade tensions between the United States (US) and China.

US President Donald Trump said on his social media platform Truth Social that his administration is considering a “massive increase of tariffs” on Chinese imports, describing Beijing’s latest export restrictions on rare earths as “hostile.” Trump added that he sees “no reason” to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea, suggesting a deterioration in bilateral relations.

China announced on Thursday new limits on the trade of rare earth elements and technologies derived from them, requiring special licenses for any product containing more than 0.1% of rare earth materials sourced from China. These minerals are essential for advanced manufacturing, including electric vehicles, jet engines, and semiconductors, making the new measures a significant blow to global supply chains.

Markets fear that this renewed confrontation between the world’s two largest economies could ignite another trade war, undermining growth prospects and increasing volatility across financial assets. The announcement triggered a broad risk-off movement, with US Equities sliding and Treasury yields falling as investors shifted toward safe-haven assets.

The US Dollar (USD) decline reflects growing expectations that heightened trade and political uncertainty could prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to adopt a more accommodative stance. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in a strong chance of rate cuts in October and December if trade tensions continue to weigh on business confidence and investment flows.

Escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing would likely sustain volatility in the US Dollar as traders reassess global growth and inflation trajectories in the final quarter of the year.

US Dollar Index 4-hour chart. Source: FXStreet.

Author

Ghiles Guezout

FXStreet

Ghiles Guezout is a Market Analyst with a strong background in stock market investments, trading, and cryptocurrencies. He combines fundamental and technical analysis skills to identify market opportunities.

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD drops to daily lows near 1.1630

EUR/USD now loses some traction and slips back to the area of daily lows around 1.1630 on the back of a mild bounce in the US Dollar. Fresh US data, including the September PCE inflation numbers and the latest read on December consumer sentiment, didn’t really move the needle, so the pair is still on course to finish the week with a respectable gain.

GBP/USD trims gains, recedes toward 1.3320

GBP/USD is struggling to keep its daily advance, coming under fresh pressure and retreating to the 1.3320 zone following a mild bullish attempt in the Greenback. Even though US consumer sentiment surprised to the upside, the US Dollar isn’t getting much love, as traders are far more interested in what the Fed will say next week.

Gold makes a U-turn, back to $4,200

Gold is now losing the grip and receding to the key $4,200 region per troy ounce following some signs of life in the Greenback and a marked bounce in US Treasury yields across the board. The positive outlook for the precious metal, however, remains underpinned by steady bets for extra easing by the Fed.