Trump-Xi meeting: Escalation the most likely outcome – Goldman Sachs

Analysts at Goldman Sachs offer their view on the probable outcomes of the much-awaited meeting between China's President Xi and US counterpart Trump this weekend on the side-lines of the G20 meeting.

Key Quotes:

“Trump-Xi meeting - 3 scenarios:

1. The first and in our view most likely is continuing on the current path of 'escalation' -- tariff rates rise to 25 percent on all imports currently under tariff, and tariffs are extended to remaining Chinese imports.
2. Second is a "pause" … existing tariffs remain in place but continued talks with escalation on hold.
3. Third, and unlikely in the close term, is a rollback of current tariffs.

Goldman Sachs further noted: “Failure to reach a deal could see Chinese export growth weaken in the coming months. Chinese growth would also probably slow beginning in early 2019, although renminbi depreciation this year would likely mitigate the impact, Bloomberg reports.