The world does not like the Renminbi – Commerzbank

It seems like an eternity has passed since Chinese policy was intent on turning the Renminbi into a global trade currency. Economists at Commerzbank explain why RMB is set to depreciate against the US Dollar.

The remnants of past policies are damaging the Renminbi

With a share of 2.7% in cross-border SWIFT capital transactions the renminbi has no significant international role. And that despite the fact that no other economy undertakes as much foreign trade as China. We have to conclude: the world does not like the Renminbi.

Some remnants of past efforts are still in place. For example, the swap lines China had entered with other countries. If the Renminbi had turned into a world currency and if loans had been denominated in RMB in third countries, these swap lines would have been able to prevent a dramatic collapse of these markets in times of crisis. None of that ever happened.

Now these swap lines are diverted for another use. In Argentina for example to provide the government with a loan that only has to be secured with an internationally largely worthless Argentinian Pesos. However, that is not CNY-positive. 

The Argentinian government is not going to be able to do much with the Yuans it received in this deal. It needs a currency with which to pay for urgently required imports: the Dollar. So the whole deal will mainly result in one thing: it will cause the Renminbi to depreciate against the US Dollar.