|

The five trillion club — AI is the market, and the market is AI

The market no longer breathes without Nvidia. It is no longer a stock — it is the bloodstream, the pulse, and increasingly, the belief system holding the entire equity complex together. Overnight, it crossed the $5 trillion mark — the first company in history to do so — and it did it not with a whisper, but a declaration of dominion. Three months ago, $4 trillion felt like a summit. Now, $5 trillion feels like baseline reality. Nvidia has become the gravitational center of modern capitalism: everything orbits around its silicon.

The velocity of this ascent defies precedent. It took the company 6,138 days to reach its first trillion, and only 78 days to climb from four to five. Since ChatGPT’s launch, the stock has risen twelvefold. Nvidia now towers over entire sectors of the S&P 500 — its market cap bigger than all utilities, industrials, and consumer staples combined. It’s worth more than AMD, ASML, Broadcom, Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, and TSMC put together. That’s not dominance — that’s empire.

And empires have emperors. Jensen Huang now stands as the “godfather of AI,” equal parts engineer, evangelist, and geopolitical player. His recent Washington speech wasn’t just a corporate showcase — it was a manifesto. A $500 billion AI chip order book, seven new supercomputers for the U.S. government, and a reaffirmation that Nvidia’s Blackwell processors are no longer just products, but instruments of national power. Trump plans to raise those very chips with Xi Jinping this week — because in 2025, silicon has become diplomacy.

Nvidia’s growth has reached a scale where its own balance sheet feels more like a sovereign ledger than a corporate one. It has shipped six million Blackwell chips and logged orders for fourteen million more. Its valuation — thirty-three times forward earnings — would be considered euphoric for most, yet analysts now call it reasonable. Some even say “cheap.” Huang’s guidance of half a trillion dollars in sales over the next five quarters has turned Wall Street’s usual skepticism into a standing ovation. Nvidia isn’t being valued like a company anymore — it’s being priced like a system.

Its reach extends far beyond semiconductors. Nvidia has effectively become the capital allocator of the AI century. The company has pledged $100 billion to fund OpenAI’s new 10-gigawatt data centers — underwriting the computational backbone of generative intelligence itself. Its partnerships now stretch across every corporate ecosystem: Oracle, Nokia, Eli Lilly, and beyond. The firm doesn’t just supply chips; it supplies belief. Nvidia is the Nasdaq’s north star — the single stock that defines what progress feels like.

Yet there’s a paradox at the heart of this story. Nvidia’s chips power the very AI systems that trade its own stock. Its hardware feeds the algorithms that read the headlines about Nvidia, model the sentiment, and execute the trades that keep it rising. It’s a feedback loop so elegant it borders on absurd — AI trading on AI, believing in AI, until the reflection becomes indistinguishable from the real thing.

Yes, skeptics are circling. They warn of overcapacity, of data centers financed on debt and demand assumptions that defy arithmetic. They compare this to the dot-com years — the same fevered pitch, the same language of “inevitability.” But Nvidia’s rise is not about valuation; it’s about narrative. It’s the purest distillation of the modern market’s truth: belief itself is the new collateral.

Nvidia isn’t just powering the AI revolution — it is the revolution. The company has become both the engine and the expression of a new financial epoch, where technology, capital, and national strategy converge. The $5 trillion milestone is less a number than a symbol — the moment when markets stopped trading on fundamentals and started trading on faith in the machine.

Whether this ends in triumph or implosion is irrelevant for now. What matters is that we’re watching history being priced in real time — the transfer of market leadership from human hands to algorithmic will. Nvidia is not merely participating in that shift. It is that shift.

AI is the market, and the market is AI. And for the moment, they share the same name.

Author

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

SPI Asset Management

With more than 25 years of experience, Stephen has a deep-seated knowledge of G10 and Asian currency markets as well as precious metal and oil markets.

More from Stephen Innes
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD trims gains, nears 1.1700

The EUR/USD pair eases in the American afternoon and approaches the 1.1700 mark. The pair surged earlier in the day after the ECB left interest rates unchanged and upwardly revised inflation and growth figures. The US CPI rose 2.7% YoY in November, nearing Fed’s goal.

GBP/USD steadies below 1.3400 as traders digest BoE policy update and US inflation data

The GBP/USD pair stalls the previous day's pullback from the vicinity of mid-1.3400s and a nearly two-month high, though it struggles to attract meaningful buyers during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3380-1.3385 region, up only 0.05% for the day, amid mixed cues.

Gold declines despite Fed rate cut hopes as US inflation cools

Gold price keeps pushing lower below $4,350 in Asian trading hours on Friday. The precious metal stays in the red due to some profit-taking and weak long liquidation from shorter-term futures traders. 

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple correction slide as BoJ rate decision weighs on sentiment

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are extending their correction phases after losing nearly 3%, 8%, and 10%, respectively, through Friday. The pullback phase is further strengthened as the upcoming Bank of Japan’s rate decision on Friday weighs on risk sentiment, with BTC breaking key support, ETH deepening weekly losses, and XRP sliding to multi-month lows.

Bank of England cuts rates in heavily divided decision

The Bank of England has cut rates to 3.75%, but the decision was more hawkish than expected, leaving market rates higher and sterling slightly stronger. It's a close call whether the Bank cuts again in February or March.

Ripple holds $1.82 support as low retail demand weighs on the token

Ripple (XRP) is trading between a key support at $1.82 and resistance at $2.00 at the time of writing on Thursday, reflecting the lethargic sentiment in the broader cryptocurrency market.