Tesla Stock Price and Forecast: Why will TSLA fall further?

Tesla stock is still failing to get above $800.
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Ford puts Tesla firmly in its sights at Ford's investor day.

Ivan Brian FXStreet

Tesla (TSLA) once again failed to hold above $800 last week, and the move increasingly starts to look like it is running out of momentum. We have been bullish on this one for some time, but this recent stalling is making us seriously doubt our call. Friday again saw Tesla stock lose over 1% and closed at $785.49. Thursday had seen grounds for optimism when Tesla stock rose to a high of $805, but crucially it could not hold these gains and fell back to close at $793.61. So the choppy, range trading continues, just the sort of things short-term traders hate, but day traders love.

Friday saw initial investor enthusiasm drift away as the weak jobs report and rising yields made for an uninviting investment cocktail. If growth is slowing and the labor market stalling but yields are rising, why would you want to invest in high-growth tech names? That is the thinking and is clearly what has been happening in the Nasdaq ever since yields on the 10-year popped back above 1.5%. As of Monday, they remain elevated at 1.6%.

Tesla 15-minute chart

Tesla key statistics

Market Cap	$777 billion
Price/Earnings	413
Price/Sales	26
Price/Book	34
Enterprise Value	$756 billion
Gross Margin	22%
Net Margin	6%
52-week high	$900.40
52-week low	$379.11
Average Wall Street Rating and Price Target	Hold, $704

Tesla (TSLA) stock news

Tesla CEO Elon Musk was at a site festival for the new giga factory in Berlin, Germany, this weekend where he spoke of eventually getting to 5,000 or 10,000 vehicles per day from the site. "Starting production is nice, but volume production is the hard part," Musk said. In a sign of Tesla being a cultural phenomenon, the event was attended by nearly 10,000 fans with tickets being distributed for the event. Hard to see other mainline auto manufactures receiving such attention.

Separately, in a tweet over the weekend, Elon Musk said Full Self driving FSD Beta 10.2 is now rolling out to some cars with a perfect safety rating.

Tesla stock forecast

Tesla is now looking like it may have put in place a double top at $805, and double tops are always bearish formations. TSLA stock need to break and hold above $805. Support comes from the 9-day moving average at $781, which is neatly also the high from April. Above here we remain bullish, below Tesla is in neutral.

FXStreet view: Bullish above $781.

Author

Ivan Brian

FXStreet

Ivan Brian started his career with AIB Bank in corporate finance and then worked for seven years at Baxter. He started as a macro analyst before becoming Head of Research and then CFO.

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