Ten questions that matter going into 2026

Key points

2026 may be less about a neat “base case” and more about a regime shift—the market can reprice what matters most (growth, inflation, fiscal, geopolitics, concentration).

The biggest trap is false comfort: the same trades can look defensive… right up until they become crowded.

Diversification won’t be about owning more tickers. It’ll be about owning different risk drivers—and knowing what you really own when the story breaks.

Is 2026 the year the earnings test finally replaces the “AI story” as the market’s main pricing engine?

2025 rewarded the narrative: capex, scale, and the promise that AI monetisation would show up “soon.” 2026 is where markets may get less patient and more forensic: show me margins, show me pricing power, show me cash flow.

The winners can still win—but the easy beta may fade. In a world of high expectations, “good” results can be punished if they’re merely not amazing.

Check your holdings: Do you own a lot of the same mega-cap AI names (directly or via broad US growth funds).

Balance idea: Investors may consider seeking earnings breadth, for example by including some companies with steadier cash flows and reasonable valuations.

Risk to note: Diversifying away from the leaders can mean lagging if the AI trade keeps powering ahead.

Read the original analysis: Ten questions that matter going into 2026