Analysts at TDS are in line with the Riksbank in looking for CPIF to remain unchanged at 2.0% y/y in December (mkt 1.9%), making for two months in a row right on top of the Riksbank’s target.
“We look for a bit of a boost from packaged holidays again, but that impact will net out to zero on the y/y rate from January onwards as the larger m/m swings in prices will now be built into base effects. The impact has already diminished almost entirely in Q4, after holiday prices were adding up to 0.4ppts to y/y CPIF at their peak in July. CPIF ex-holidays has been fairly steady between 1.8-2.1% y/y since July, which supports the Riksbank’s increasing confidence that the inflation battle has been won.”
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