Strategic CAD shorts are likely being added due to political turmoil – ING

Canada has been shaken by the resignation of finance minister Chrystia Freeland due to divergences with PM Justin Trudeau on how to deal with the threat of Trump tariffs. Trudeau has nominated Dominic LeBlanc as a replacement. He was part of the Canadian delegation that visited Mar-a-Lago last month given his latest responsibility for border security, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Outlook for next year remains gloomy for CAD

|Turmoil in Canadian politics is adding a reason the bearish side of the loonie, which remains heavily affected by the prospects of North America trade tensions. Should this lead to a collapse of Trudeau’s government and snap elections, expect the anti-tariffs policy to be the key theme of the campaign.”

“Still, now that the news of Freeland's resignation has been absorbed, we are not convinced USD/CAD needs to accelerate much further on the upside unless the Fed surprises markedly on the hawkish side. Both technical and seasonal factors point to the rally being stretched at this point – and we think it could stall after passing 1.430.”

“That said, the outlook for next year remains gloomy for CAD, and chances of a shift to 1.45+ are tangible if Trump goes ahead with 25% tariffs on Canada.”