Stocks likely to extend consolidation: Topping pattern forming?

Wednesday’s trading session brought declines for the stock market, but overall, the market remained within its short-term consolidation. The S&P 500 index lost 0.6% after rebounding from the daily low of around 5,561. The eagerly-awaited NVDA earnings didn’t change much, although today, the market is set to open 0.2% higher, retracing some of yesterday’s decline and further extending its consolidation.

Last Wednesday, I wrote “Recently, the market has continued to climb following the brief Yen crisis at the start of August, surprising many traders. The question is whether the market will continue to new highs or reverse course and retrace the recent rally. I think there is a chance the market will reverse its course and correct some of the advances, retracing a large part of the rally.”

Investor sentiment remains elevated, as shown by the yesterday’s AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which showed that 51.2% of individual investors are bullish, while 27.0% of them are bearish – up from 23.7% last week.

The S&P 500 index remains within a short-term consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart.

Nasdaq 100 remains relatively Weaker

The technology-focused Nasdaq 100 approached the 20,000 level last week. Since then, it has been slowly retracing some of its gains. Yesterday, it was as low as 19,221.48; it closed 1.18% lower ahead of the NVDA earnings.

The resistance level remains around 20,000, marked by the July 17 daily gap down from 20,080.27 to 20,266.51, among others. Today, the Nasdaq 100 is likely to open 0.4% lower, and NVDA stock is 3.8% lower in pre-market trading.

VIX: Above 17 again

On the previous Monday, the VIX index, a measure of market fear, reached a new long-term high of 65.73 - the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID sell-off in 2020. Last Monday, it traded as low as 14.46 following a rebound in stock prices. Since then, the VIX has been rising again, reaching a high of 18.06 on Thursday. Yesterday, it was above 17, indicating slightly more fear in the market.

Historically, a dropping VIX indicates less fear in the market, and rising VIX accompanies stock market downturns. However, the lower the VIX, the higher the probability of the market’s downward reversal. Conversely, the higher the VIX, the higher the probability of the market’s upward reversal.

Futures contract rebounded above 5,600 again

Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. Yesterday, it fell as low as 5,561 before rebounding above 5,600. The resistance remains at 5,660-5,670, marked by local highs. It still appears to be in a short-term consolidation, likely forming a topping pattern.

As I wrote last Wednesday, “The market seems to be heading toward new record highs but is becoming increasingly overbought and susceptible to a short-term correction. The recent volatility suggests a potential shift in the long-term outlook, and the market may be entering a medium-term consolidation.”

Conclusion

The S&P 500 index extended its consolidation yesterday, and the NVDA earnings release didn’t cause a volatile breakout. This morning, the index is likely to open slightly higher following the U.S. GDP and Unemployment Claims releases, despite the decline in NVDA stock. There is more uncertainty ahead and likely sideways trading action as we approach the long holiday weekend.

I opened a speculative short position in the S&P 500 futures contract last Tuesday, August 20.

For now, my short-term outlook remains bearish.

Here’s the breakdown:

• Despite earnings and data, the S&P 500 index is still trading sideways.

• The market may still be forming a topping pattern.

• In my opinion, the short-term outlook is bearish.

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